tips@bluegrassredstate.com
By: admin
For the morons who thought I made up Baranowski’s statement on Beshear “burying,” or “slaughtering” Fletcher should Fletcher win the primary - here’s the source in its entirety.
http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070521/NEWS02/705210358/-1/all
NKU prof: Beshear will bury Fletcher
Gov. Ernie Fletcher will survive a political scandal to win Tuesday’s Republican gubernatorial primary election, but will be soundly defeated in November’s general election by Democrat Steve Beshear, figures Northern Kentucky University political science professor Michael Baranowski.
Beshear, because of a crowded six-person Democratic primary field, won’t get the necessary 40 percent of primary votes Tuesday to be the party’s candidate, and will be forced into a runoff election against Bruce Lunsford, Baranowski forecasts.
Beshear will win the June 26 runoff, Baranowski said, and then have an easy time of it in November against Fletcher.
“Fletcher is going to get slaughtered,” he said.
No matter what the outcome happens to be, it’s a fascinating election year in Kentucky, said Baranowski, with a good old-fashioned scandal prompting two Republicans to challenge a sitting GOP governor and a half-dozen Democrats anxious to oust a politically wounded incumbent.
“Kentucky politics is a full employment act for political reporters and political scientists,” said Baranowski. “There’s nothing like Kentucky politics, especially this year.”
Fletcher, stung by a patronage scandal, is being challenged by fellow Republicans Anne Northup of Louisville, who formerly served in Congress and the state legislature, and by Paducah businessman Billy Harper.
“I think the fact that Fletcher is facing such a strong challenge in the first place is an indication of general dissatisfaction in the Republican Party,” said Baranowski.
“That is something that has been said by the media, but also most clearly by (Republican U.S.) Sen. Jim Bunning and, to a lesser extent, by (Republican U.S.) Sen. Mitch McConnell.”
As for how voters will react to the scandal Tuesday, Baranowski figures that depends in large part on where they live.
“In Northern Kentucky, Fletcher is going to rack up some pretty good margins,” he said. “There’s a sense that Fletcher has been very good for Northern Kentucky.”
Baranowski expects Fletcher to be weakest in Northup’s hometown of Louisville. But, he doesn’t see Northup pushing Fletcher aside.
“I expect Fletcher to win, and I don’t think a runoff will be necessary on the Republican side,” he said. “I think Northup ran sort of a disappointing campaign.
“She ran a very anti-Fletcher campaign, and I think that’s how most people identify her. She framed herself as the alternative and that’s not a very strong platform.
“Some negative campaigning can certainly work, but if a campaign is fundamentally negative, voters ask why they should vote ‘for’ that candidate.”
Northup isn’t helped by the presence of another alternative candidate - Harper - - in the race, Baranowski said.
“Harper is going to pull more votes away from Northup than from Fletcher,” he said. “I think Harper is going to hurt Northup.”
While Fletcher has been tainted by the patronage scandal, he’s been able to partially offset it, at least in his own party, said Baranowski.
“Fletcher has a natural advantage in that it’s good to be the governor, especially in Kentucky,” he said. “The governor is a powerful guy. He is the person handing out the big checks.”
While Fletcher’s incumbency may be enough to help him survive in his party’s primary, it won’t be enough to offset the scandal in the November general election, when Democratic voters will eagerly capitalize on it, figures Baranowski.
But, he doesn’t expect a clear-cut Democratic candidate in Tuesday’s primary.
“Beshear is the leading candidate, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to getting 40 percent. If there were only two or three candidates, I could see him getting over 40 percent, but not in a six-person field.
“My guess is that Beshear’s runoff opponent will be Lunsford. His polling numbers have held up pretty well for a while.”
Beshear, a former lieutenant governor, should beat Lunsford in a runoff because of Beshear’s positive image in Democratic circles and because of Lunsford’s support of Fletcher in the 2003 election, said Baranowski.
By: admin
Apparently, Young Republicans and Young Democrats sat down to talk about Iraq recently. Weird.
I hope some of those Young Republicans make the right choice and vote for Anne Northup tomorrow.
By: admin
Copied from Courier-Journal:
Louisville-area real estate outperforming nation’s
First quarter sees house-price gains
By David Goetz
dgoetz@courier-journal.com
The Courier-Journal
Louisville homeowners did better than the national average keeping the homes they wanted and selling the ones they didn’t in the first three months of the year.
Nearly 17 percent more homes got default notices, auction notices or were repossessed in Kentucky during the quarter — far less than the national increase of 62 percent, according to RealtyTrac, a Web-based research firm.
Bales
“I would think that’s probably in the ballpark,” said Dan Albers, master commissioner for Jefferson Circuit Court, which handles foreclosure sales. “I would say 15-20 percent is probably an accurate figure.”
And a separate report showed that those trying to sell their homes in Louisville saw prices continue a slow-but-steady advance in the quarter, bucking a national trend that saw the median home price fall nearly 2 percent, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.
Area condominiums did even better, with the median price rising 10 percent over a year ago, the association said, compared to 1 percent nationwide.
The median price for a single-family home in the Louisville-Southern Indiana market was $133,300 in the first quarter of 2007, the Realtors reported, up 1.7 percent over the same period a year ago. The median condominium price was $127,500.
News that the pace of existing home sales slowed nationally in the first quarter by almost 7 percent compared to a year ago cut short a 100-point surge in the Dow Jones industrial average. After rising sharply through much of the day on news of tame inflation, the home-sales report left major indexes mixed.
It was the latest indication of a national slowdown in the housing market. The Realtors said home sales reached a 6.4 million annual rate compared to 6.9 million in the same quarter of 2006.
“We expect foreclosure activity to at least stay above last year’s levels for the remainder of 2007, fueled by a combustible mix of risky loans taken out in the last few years — many in the subprime market — and slowing home-price appreciation,” James Saccacio, chief executive officer of Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, said in a prepared statement.
Home prices, too, are still falling. The national median existing single-family home price in the first quarter was $212,300, down 1.8 percent from a year ago when the median price was $216,100, according to the NAR’s quarterly survey of housing market conditions. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more and half for less.
At least part of the decline in the median price of homes is because sales have shifted away from more expensive homes, said a statement from the NAR, a Realtors trade group.
There are some signs of hope in the housing market. Existing-home sales rose at a 2.4 percent higher annual rate than in the final quarter of 2006. Fourteen states and the District of Columbia showed an increase in the rate of home sales last quarter compared with only six states showing gains a quarter earlier, the NAR said.
“It appears the worst of the price correction is behind us,” said Pat V. Combs, NAR’s president and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt in Grand Rapids, Mich., in a prepared statement.
RealtyTrac said foreclosures in April spiked to 147,708, compared with 91,168 in 2006, as lenders moved to repossess one of every 783 homes. The April figure was 1 percent lower than in March, when foreclosures hit a two-year high.
Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut, California and Ohio had the highest foreclosure rates nationwide, RealtyTrac said.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
By: admin
Dear Friends,
Tomorrow, when you go into the voting booth, ask yourself a question. Do you want four more years of a Republican governor being investigated by a politically motivated DEMOCRAT Attorney General?
As Republicans, none of us want this. This is why I ask for your vote in tomorrow’s Attorney General race.
As the only prosecutor in the race, I’m the one candidate who has conservative values and prosecutorial experience; both of which are desperately needed in the state’s top law enforcement position. My three opponents, while all good Republicans, have never worked with law enforcement to remove felons from our streets, fought for justice on behalf of victims of heinous crimes, or represented the voice of every Kentuckian in a courtroom.
I have spent the last eight years as a prosecutor, serving as the County Attorney in Butler County, and currently in my second term as the Commonwealth’s Attorney in Butler, Ohio, Hancock & Edmonson Counties. I have prosecuted more than 4,000 felony cases and have consistently put sexual predators, drug dealers and violent criminals behind bars. No other candidate, Republican or Democrat, can make this claim!
When the Wildcats were looking for a new basketball coach, they would not have hired someone who has never coached a game. Why would you elect an Attorney General who has never prosecuted a case?
I humbly ask for your support tomorrow.
With best wishes,
Tim Coleman
Republican Candidate for Attorney General
By: admin
Monticello - With a crowded primary field vying for the GOP Treasurer nomination, one candidate has clearly moved ahead of the pack in the final days. Possessing an unrivaled Get Out The Vote program and well-honed advertising strategy, Rep. Ken Upchurch has orchestrated as effective a primary down ticket campaign as Kentucky Republicans have ever seen.
“We are very excited to see this operation come together” stated campaign manager Brad Cummings. “It is an uphill battle to garner volunteer support in a down ticket race, especially with a contentious gubernatorial race at hand. But thanks to a great network of supportive Republicans across the state, we are confident that this Tuesday will be a step in the right direction for Kentucky and a step in the right direction for the Republican Party.”
“While we may not have raised the most money, we have exhibited the type of fiscal intelligence that Kentuckians deserve to expect from their Treasurer” stated Cummings. “Rep. Upchurch has run a financially responsible campaign that reflects the very heart of Republican values.”
“We are optimistic that our vision for a more effective Treasurer’s office will be rewarded on May 22nd” stated Rep. Upchurch. “We are driven to make this historically distant office an example of government working for the people. This vision will help lead us to victory in May and November.”
By: admin
NKU Poli Sci professor Michael Baranowski says Fletcher would get slaughtered by Beshear/Mongiardo in November if he wins tomorrow. That’s a pretty bleak picture for Republicans.
By: admin
Excerpt:
On the Republican side, the people who know Anne Northup best — the GOP voters she served for a decade in Congress — have every reason to go to the polls and vote for her, including her record of integrity and responsibility, her ability and energy.
They have endless reasons to vote against her opponent, Ernie Fletcher:
Democrats salivate at the prospect of running against a scandal-ridden governor who:
Gave in to the pressure of political job-seekers and broke the very promises of honesty and incorruptibility that got him elected;
Won’t tell the truth about his claimed accomplishments;
Is branded a failure by his own former running mate;
Insists on blurring the line between governing and campaigning at taxpayer expense;
Dismisses the biggest Frankfort scandal in years as “much ado about nothing.”
Brazenly pardons his co-conspirators, pleads the Fifth Amendment and strikes a deal with an ethically challenged attorney general to avoid trial;
Continues to hide the names of those who dumped cash into his defense fund.
His performance shames the memory of that quintessential Kentucky Republican, John Sherman Cooper.
By: admin
Several people who were at Anne Northup’s rally in Somerset recently are conveying the same story. Here’s how one person put it, when talking to the delusional Baghdad Bob Ernie Fletcher supporter Brian Goettl.
Brian, you should have been in Somerset yesterday. Northup had 75-100 people for her rally at 4:00. At 5:00 the governor’s bus pulled up to the outskirts but could not come to where they had the stage set up because there were only 5 people waiting. At 5:15, there were 6 people there, and by 6:00 there were still less than 10 people waiting. Meanwhile, the governor had to cool his jets waiting for his posse to go round people up. They were literally BEGGING people to come out. They were overheard saying to a man and his son, “Don’t you want to see the governor?”
The man said, “But I am a Democrat - I’m not voting for him.”
The Fletcherite then said, “Yeah, but nobody will know that - we just need some people.”
Sounds like the governor is having trouble drumming up crowds, not Anne Northup.
May 20, 2007 |
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By: admin
“I am the only candidate in this year’s governor’s race who proudly calls this part of the state my home,” Hoover says in a radio spot airing in Somerset that also features a glowing endorsement by state Rep. Tommy Turner of Somerset.
In another ad airing in Columbia, Hoover says he “will work hard for Adair County every single day, not just two or three months before an election.” The ads also rebut criticisms from Gov. Ernie Fletcher that Northup doesn’t support school prayer and is anti-gun.
“As this campaign ends, desperate candidates will do and say desperate things,” says Hoover, noting that Northup has voted for bills that encourage school prayer and received an A rating from the National Rifle Association in 2006.
Thanks, PolWatchers.
By: admin
Excerpt, from C-J:
But some Republicans say that Lee’s views may be too extreme in Kentucky, and they say that a GOP rival, Commonwealth’s Attorney Tim Coleman of Morgantown, would be more likely to prevail in the general election.
“Coleman is a conservative, but not way over there,” said former state senator and Supreme Court Justice Walter Baker of Glasgow.
Coleman, 49, is also the only candidate in either primary who has prosecuted a case. He has been endorsed by 16 elected prosecutors representing 24 counties, while Lee has the support of 27 state legislators.
Coleman has raised $94,185 and Lee $106,476 for their races, while the two other Republican candidates have raised less than $1,500 each and are not mounting active campaigns.
May 19, 2007 |
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By: admin
From Wave3:
Northup combs conservative southeastern Kentucky for votes
(BRODHEAD, Ky.) — Judy Baker is not unlike her neighbors in this heavily Republican southeastern Kentucky town.
A conservative Christian, she supports only like-minded political candidates, those who take strong stands on moral issues and especially those who are willing to proclaim their opposition to abortion and gambling.
Baker said she has had to add electability as a requirement in Tuesday’s GOP primary election between Gov. Ernie Fletcher and two challengers.
“I don’t think Ernie Fletcher has done that bad of a job, but he has slaughtered himself with publicity,” said Baker, having lunch at Rose’s One Stop in Brodhead on Friday. “I’m not sure he can win re-election, and I really want a Republican to win.”
. . . keep reading
May 19, 2007 |
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By: admin
Kentuckians overwhelmingly passed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, but in 2004 Bob Barr spoke out against such amendments.
NEWSWEEK: You authored the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, but you’ve come out against an amendment to the constitution banning same-sex marriage. Why is that?
Bob Barr: Because I believe very strongly in federalism and that is that the federal government should not be stepping in and dictating social policy to the states. The Defense of Marriage Act was crafted very narrowly. Despite very strong pressure to make it a proactive piece of legislation, I crafted it very narrowly simply to define marriage for federal-law purposes and to make sure that states were protected to make up their own mind. And I continue to believe that that is the best policy.
Also, the Lou C-J’s editorial on “Fletcher’s odd bedfellow” Bob Barr was right on. In the piece, Barr was quoted as saying,
“I could no longer justify in my mind continuing to work in the Republican Party.”
By working for Ernie Fletcher, Bob Barr is definitely working against the Republican Party!
The editorial stated in part:
Why is Bob Barr suddenly in the middle of Kentucky’s Republican gubernatorial politics? We thought Georgia Republicans had gotten rid of him in 2002, when they chose a different congressional candidate in their primary.
But now Mr. Barr has turned up here, in so-called “Robo calls” to rural Republicans, paid for by Ernie Fletcher’s campaign. Mr. Barr and Dr. Fletcher want you to know that former Congresswoman Anne Northup once voted against school prayer. They are not mentioning the many times she voted for it.
But more interesting than yet another distortion during campaign season is this: Why would Gov. Fletcher choose Mr. Barr to speak for him?
Good question, C-J.
He also lobbies for the Marijuana Policy Project, which works toward another Libertarian goal: “Repeal all laws establishing criminal or civil penalties for the use of drugs.”
Well, some of those things sound okay to proud, card-carrying liberals like us. But of all the people in the world, is this the guy Gov. Fletcher really wants as a front man?
Neither Ernie Fletcher nor Bob Barr represent mainstream Kentucky.
May 18, 2007 |
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By: admin
I still think it’s great that Tim Coleman just wants to do the job of Attorney General and not use the office as a launching pad for higher office. I would also expect Attorney General Tim Coleman to institute an aggressive program to find and prosecute sexual predators that attack Kentucky’s children.
Click the link below to hear Stan Lee talk about Corbin people behind their backs to a Lexington crowd, most of whom sounded amused. It’s really quite awkward. I think I remember hearing excuses about this, but none that were very convincing to me personally. He was trying to get their votes an hour earlier, but then had this to say about them . . .
Stan Lee talks about people behind their backs.
By: admin
Click the photo to hear Ken Upchurch’s radio ad.
May 18, 2007 |
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By: admin
Democrat leaders want Fletcher to win the primary so they can defeat him and his horrible style of governing and campaigning in November. How approprioate for Fletcher to hang out with the appropriations king.
May 18, 2007 |
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By: admin
Northup Schedule for Friday, May 18:
(All times Eastern)
10am: 790 Lancelot Lane, London: meets with protestors concerned about possible asphalt plant near their neighborhood. Contact Tommy Turner for additional possible stops: 606-271-1033).
Noon: Lunch in Brodhead (Rockcastle County): Contact Travis Burton for details (606-308-1204)
1-5pm: Various campaign stops in Rockcastle County (re: Travis Burton)
6-7pm: Fish Fry in Livingston (again. re: Travis Burton)
Northup Schedule for Saturday, May 19:
Northup four-stop state fly-around:
(All times local at the site)
(1) Noon-12:45: NKY Airport (Hebron)—COMAIR FBO
(2) 1:30-2:15: Lexington Airport—FBO (back parking lot)
(3) 3:00-3:45—Somerset Airport (Lobby)
(4) 3:30-4:15 CST Bowling Green Airport—FBO Lobby, 1000 Woodhurst Drive
By: admin
I don’t think Tim Coleman wants to use the Attorney General’s office as a launching pad for higher office. That’s important to me.
Coleman press release:
WHY IS EVERYONE AGREEING WITH TIM COLEMAN?
LEXINGTON – In a rare occurrence on a live debate, the Republicans running for Attorney General found themselves agreeing with one candidate throughout the night, Tim Coleman.
“Tonight you saw the real difference between Tim Coleman and his three opponents who felt more inclined to agree with him, then debate him,” Coleman’s campaign manager Scott Broschart stated.
“To see the other candidates agreeing with him only exemplifies the fact that Tim Coleman is the only candidate with the experience needed for the position of Attorney General. While other candidates simply spewed rhetoric, Tim Coleman showed us how he would lead the office of Attorney General, and not be just another politician with a law degree,” Broschart stated.
Tim Coleman is the only candidate running who has experience as a prosecutor, having served as a County Attorney, and is currently serving as a Commonwealth’s Attorney in Butler, Edmonson, Hancock and Ohio Counties and on the Governor’s Prosecutors Advisory Council.
May 18, 2007 |
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By: admin
As Governor, Ernie Fletcher has certainly enjoyed his fair share of alcoholic beverages. The Fletcher campaign says that “you can be a religious person and have an occasional alcoholic drink.” Well, sort of.
Ryal Alessi caught up with Pastor David Carr, who runs the King of Kings Radio Network Inc. in Somerset, Glasgow and Cookeville, Tenn. Mr. Carr, a “religious person,” said that “Any time you drink alcohol or you have parties with alcohol, for religious people, it’s a negative.”
For me, this raises what may be a more important question. Has Ernie Fletcher changed since back when he was a lay minister at Lexington Primitive Baptist Church? Many churches that I know of require the church leadership to abstain from alcohol completely to set a good example for the church body and the community, and to avoid giving the wrong impression to people who may not be familiar with the person, the church, or Christianity in general. I’m sure Lex PBC is no different.
In his candidate profile from the Lex H-L on 4/23, Ernie Fletcher says he left the Lex PBC in 1994 after his faith became “a little more progressive.”
Did Ernie Fletcher enjoy an occasional alcoholic drink while he was a lay minister? That would have almost certainly been a violation of church rules, although I haven’t consulted the church. And what did he mean by “a little more progressive?” His faith has changed?
Also, how often does Ernie Fletcher consider “occasional” when he’s in Frankfort?
May 16, 2007 |
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