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I got phone calls and emails this morning from several Louisville Republicans reporting on polling that Rep. John Yarmuth is conducting. The nature of the poll should be troubling to Republicans and Democrats in Louisville, but Democrats will undoubtedly find betrayal in this sad display of political waffling from the once proud liberal Yarmuth.

Polling popularity at this stage in the game would be understandable - with two Democrat White House hopefuls tanking in polls against John McCain, bitter intra-party fighting taking place, and the strongest Republican challenger in the country, Anne Northup, preparing an all out assault on him. Yarmuth should know what he’s in for, but this scenario explains why the 110th Congress, led by General Nancy Pelosi, has absolutely abysmal approval ratings hovering in the teens.

Judging from the poll, John Yarmuth wants to know what he should believe about universal health care.

I’m hearing that the poll they got last night around dinner time went something like this:

1. If the race were held today who would you support: Democrat John Yarmuth or Republican Anne Northup?

2. Hillary Clinton supports universal health care coverage. Would you be more or less likely to support John Yarmuth if he supported Hillary’s universal health care proposal?

3. What is your age?

4. What is your sex?

That’s right folks. The man who proudly declared on November 7, 2006, “We ran as Democrats!” now needs help - from Republicans - deciding what to believe about universal health care.

I think this kind of poll-driven policymaking is precisely what America is sick of. Yarmuth pretended to have the answers to health care back in 2006. He pretended to know what he believed. He’s an incumbent in an election now, though, and he’s confused.

What is even more troubling about this is that he is asking if constituents would be more likely to support him if he supported Hillary’s health care proposal.

• First, I thought Yarmuth had this all figured out. I thought he knew what was best for America. Why is he asking about supporting some specific person’s plan for universal health care? Why doesn’t he just say what he believes?
• Second, Yarmuth endorsed Barack Obama months ago. When deciding who to endorse, did he not compare HillaryCare and ObamaCare? My understanding is that they are incredibly similar, but to a nuanced and intelligent fellow like John Yarmuth, the differences are surely enough to warrant special inspection before deciding on an endorsement.
• Also, what is John Yarmuth going to do? Will he endorse Barack Obama, but put an asterisk on it that leads you to a little footnote saying “Except for health care. I endorse Hillary Clinton’s universal health care plan, but Barack Obama for President?”

This leads me to my final thought. Is Yarmuth building a shield to carry as he runs from the Obama camp to the Clinton camp?

His endorsement of Barack Obama came before the devastating news coverage of Obama’s spiritual advisor and mentor Jeremiah Wright and the subsequent bickering over race and gender within the Democratic Party. I highly doubt that the Clintons stopped lobbying Yarmuth altogether for his superdelegate vote at the DNC Denver convention after his endorsement of Obama, especially as the coverage of Wright heated up and the treatment Obama received from the media soured. Could it be that Yarmuth is contemplating supporting the candidate for first female POTUS over first black POTUS? While Hillary Clinton is almost certain to win Kentucky, I don’t know who will win Louisville. Barack Obama does have a substantial fundraising advantage over Clinton in Louisville, but most of that money went to Obama while his image was untarnished. And remember, Kentucky has not yet voted in its primary. If Clinton wins Louisville among Democrats or loses by a small margin, Yarmuth may decide to change his mind and vote for Clinton at the Denver convention rather than be tied to Obama and his pastor’s hate speech - especially if the poll indicates that some people would be more likely to support him if he supports HillaryCare.

The polling definitely raises more questions than it answers at this point, but one thing is certain, Yarmuth is not safe and he knows it.

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