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Northup Reportedly Raised $450,000 in 2008 Q1

Fundraising is something Anne Northup has always been good at, and it looks like this race will not be any different. Sure, some PACs will prefer to not give to KY-3, or to choose the actual incumbent Rep. John Yarmuth, but if initial reports on Northup’s Q1 fundraising numbers are accurate, Yarmuth is in big trouble.

Yarmuth already suffers from poor favorability ratings compared to Northup (AN’s 57% favorable / 38% strongly favorable to JY’s 54% favorable / 25% strongly favorable) and presidential indicators that are just not strong enough to help him surmount an onslaught of ads from Mitch McConnell and Anne Northup in a state that will be deemed lost by national Democrats early on.

Multiple sources are telling me that the Northup campaign raised about $450,000 since entering the race about two months before the first filing deadline. The numbers are not officially out yet, but the Northup camp is not denying the rumor. For Northup to take in $450K in about 60 days shows an intense desire to get her back to Congress where she can effectively represent more of Louisville than the 5% or so of the city’s population that Yarmuth represents with his votes and his actions at the House of Representatives.

Yarmuth will be crippled by his party’s presidential nominee, no matter who it is. While recent polling shows Hillary Clinton leading John McCain 49% to 48% and Barack Obama leading McCain 52% to 47%, that is nothing Northup hasn’t already overcome. In 1996, Bill Clinton won Jefferson County 51% to 41%, but Northup defeated Mike Ward with just over 50% of the vote. And Hillary Clinton’s negatives are higher than Bill’s ever were, and Obama’s are moving upward quickly with the Jeremiah Wright scandal refusing to go away - especially in “flyover country” like Kentucky. Also, the Clinton/Obama grudge match has already caused pledged supporters to vow to vote for McCain in the event that their choice for the Democratic presidential nomination loses the primary. Clinton leads Obama in Louisville 45% to 40% according to Preston-Osborne, while the recent Survey USA poll has Clinton leading with 50% to Obama’s 38%.

Look for this to go from bad to worse for Yarmuth.

• Thursday Americano
• I Told You Last Week: Northup Fundraising Official Numbers
• Yarmuth Has Abysmal Fundraising First Quarter
• Northup Poll Results
• DemoBlog - Yarmuth In "Grave Danger" Of Losing Seat