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Loading ...The Louisville Courier-Journal is reporting some news coming out of Indiana exit polls that is very good for John McCain. Supporters of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton seem to be rather intensely against the other Democrat candidate. Many say they will vote for McCain if their candidate loses. Many say they will not vote in the general election if their candidate loses.
Expect similar numbers in Kentucky and West Virginia on May 20th.
Indiana Democrats supporting Clinton were asked for their pick if the November contest is between Obama and Republican John McCain. Forty-eight percent of Clinton voters said they would vote for Obama and 33 percent said they would vote for McCain. And 17 percent said they would not vote.
Among Obama voters in Indiana today, 59 percent said they would support Clinton if she is the candidate in the fall and 21 percent said they would vote for McCain. And 17 percent said they would not vote.
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May 6th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
340000 IN GOP voters total, according to CNN. Provided all of them vote McCain, and even if half of all opponent DEM voters swayed McCain rather than not voting at all (250000), a DEM candidate would still be strongly positioned to defeat McCain. Of course, that would not account for voters registering before the general, independent voters, etc., and McCain will likely experience a push when he announces a VP.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
but that doesn’t count republicans (and independents).
they’re people too, you know?
especially w/ indiana being a red state and all.
the same will apply to kentucky, west virginia, and a lot of other states that obama has lost (or, will lose).
May 6th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Jefferson, I’m confused by your statement. The 340000 number is the number of people that voted in the Indiana GOP primary today (only about 75% of which voted for McCain). The 250000 number is roughly half of either Hillary or Obama voters (either way, they both ended up with around 500000 each). How is that not counting Republicans or independents? 340000+250000=590000 for McCain. 500000+250000=750000 for Democratic nominee. (Again, I said in my previous comment, that doesn’t account for voters registered as independent or those not yet registered.) Of course it is also possible that GOP voters sat it out, since McCain is the presumptive nominee and since Governor Daniels has no opponent.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:43 am
idk - i guess i read your comment too quickly.
but yeah, turnout is probably lower in the primary.
May 7th, 2008 at 10:13 am
In the 2004 election, Indiana had about 2.5 million voters for a turnout of 58% (http://www.ai.org/sos/elections/2004%20Municipal%20Registration%20and%20Turnout.pdf)
It looks like you are not counting about 1.2 million voters (either party) that voted for president last time.